Wars Everywhere and No End in Sight?

In light of the volatile global situation, the editors make the following recommendations: despite security challenges and necessary defense measures, peacebuilding, development cooperation and civil conflict management must not be overlooked. The escalating violence must be contained in the short term. At the same time, the way must be paved for long-term peace processes – in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Africa. The German government should use diplomatic initiatives to strengthen independent institutions under international law and actively work towards conflict resolution. In its focus chapter, the Peace Report takes an in-depth look at the war in Gaza and examines the possibilities for short-term stabilization and long-term prospects for peace.

War between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip

Since the terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, a war has been raging in the Gaza Strip. The ongoing fighting has had devastating humanitarian consequences: Access to aid is severely restricted and much of the infrastructure has been destroyed.

At the same time, the escalation in Gaza has increased the intensity of other conflicts in the region, such as tensions between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. At the same time, there have been military conflicts between U.S.- and Iranian-backed non-state groups in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank also increased.

The regional powers pursue partly conflicting interests. While Iran – which attacked Israel directly for the first time in April 2024 – and its partners in the “Axis of Resistance” are using the conflict to bolster their regime’s legitimacy, countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia are seeking to normalize relations with Israel. The authors warn that the war is testing this rapprochement and provoking sometimes fierce resistance from local populations.

At present, the chances for peace appear slim against the backdrop of regional dynamics, such as the massive consequences of the war, internal Palestinian divisions, and the current power struggles in Israel. Additionally, some features of the conflict pose particular challenges for its resolution. The asymmetric violent tactics of non-state groups such as Hamas make military victory difficult. On the other hand, negotiations with non-governmental militant groups are seen as rewarding the militants. Simultaneously, current violence obscures the underlying political causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In addition, the conflict's embedding in regional order processes and the military support provided by allies to both warring parties exacerbate the dynamics.

The authors emphasize: Germany and the EU should initially focus on short-term de-escalation and humanitarian aid for Gaza, while strengthening civil society actors on both sides and linking the normalization processes between Israel and the Arab states to the prospect of a Palestinian state.

The chapter was coordinated by Claudia Baumgart-Ochse. PRIF Researchers Damaris Braun, Elisabeth Hoffberger-Pippan, Hanna Pfeifer, Regine Schwab and Irene Weipert-Fenner were also involved.

Global Conflicts Escalate

Other chapters of the Peace Report are devoted to Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine and the growing number of armed conflicts in West Africa. The authors emphasize the need to combine military support for Ukraine with diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace.

They are particularly concerned about the risk of nuclear escalation and recommend strengthening the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and sustainable risk management. At the same time, the report warns that increased defense spending must not come at the expense of other peace-relevant policy areas, such as climate and development policy. Maintaining dialogue and development cooperation, for example, would help to avoid losing important civil society partners and to work together on peace strategies.

But the world is without a compass and lacks forward-looking ideas on how to tackle the multiple crises.

The final chapter of Peace Report 2024 focuses on social peace in Germany. It analyzes the growing influence of authoritarian and extremist groups as well as the loss of confidence in democratic institutions and the rule of law. The authors call for social discontent to be taken seriously and for democratic deficits to be addressed – while at the same time maintaining a clear distinction from extremist groups and parties. They warn against the normalization of radical rhetoric and narratives, and call for the legal protection of independent institutions and the comprehensive promotion of political education.

Interview with Claudia-Baumgart-Ochse

Claudia Baumgart-Ochse

Dr. Claudia Baumgart-Ochse heads the Research Department Transnational Politics, is a member of PRIF’s Executive board and is the editorial director of the Peace Report. Her research interests include, inter alia, the role of religion in conflicts, Israel and the Middle East conflict.

1. The focus chapter focuses on the ongoing war in Gaza and recommends keeping medium- and long-term peace prospects open. What might these peace prospects look like politically? What are the opportunities and obstacles for conflict resolution?

   The first priority must be to end the war and the intolerable humanitarian emergency in the Gaza Strip. In the focus chapter, we call for a cease-fire to free Israeli hostages, protect Palestinian civilians, and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. The next step would be to end the blockade of Gaza and organize an interim administration with international support. Only then can we talk about long-term peace prospects that guarantee security for Israel and the Palestinians. The so-called two-state solution is still demanded by the international community, but it is very conditional, because very difficult issues such as Jewish settlements in the occupied territories or the future of the Palestinian refugees have to be negotiated. In order to keep this long-term perspective open, it is important for Germany and the EU to insist that international law and human rights are respected – because this is not the case at the moment. And Germany can help reform the Palestinian Authority and promote the rule of law, democracy, and economic improvement.

2. Overall, the Peace Report paints a sobering picture of a “world without a compass”. Why was this image chosen? How can Germany and the EU counter these negative developments?

   We observe that peace in the world is acutely threatened by war and violence, for example in Europe by the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, in the Middle East by the war in Gaza and Lebanon, and in West Africa by a series of violent coups. At the same time, disarmament and arms control are in retreat, and many states are rearming or modernizing their arsenals. In addition, the foundations of peace are also under threat in the long term – for example, the sustainability goals of the United Nations are falling far short of expectations, for example in the areas of peace and poverty, and the fight against climate change is not making sufficient progress. But the world is without a compass and lacks forward-looking ideas on how to tackle the multiple crises. In the Peace Report, we therefore recommend refocusing on very pragmatic points of reference. These include the basic norms and principles of international law and the rules and procedures of multilateral cooperation. Germany and the EU should also try to contain rivalries through arms control and joint risk management. Finally, in conflict situations that do not seem to hold out the prospect of peace in the foreseeable future, negotiations should nevertheless be prepared and security guarantees offered – as in the case of Ukraine. (hfr)